Mogadishu(Mogadishu24)-Navigating the diplomatic complexities between Somalia and Ethiopia is like balancing on a tightrope, where allies, adversaries, and interests converge in intricate ways. These 15 facts highlight key regional and global dynamics that influence the ongoing “Ethiopian access to the sea” debate, impacting the relations between Ethiopia and Somalia.

1. Egypt’s Support for Somalia

Egypt, engaged in a long-standing conflict with Ethiopia over Nile River water rights, is one of the few nations openly supporting Somalia. Aligned with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and recently improving ties with Qatar, Egypt leverages its alliances to challenge Ethiopia’s regional influence.

• UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Interests

Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are shifting their economies away from oil dependency and are eyeing foreign investments. Ethiopia, with its abundant land and affordable labor, presents an appealing investment opportunity, making it strategically important to the Gulf countries.

• Egypt’s Military Influence

Egypt’s military power and technical expertise position it as a significant actor in regional affairs. Its influence could shape key projects, particularly those involving the UAE and Saudi Arabia, affecting the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.

• UAE-Somalia Relations Deteriorate

Tensions between the Somali government and the UAE have escalated in recent months. The deterioration of this relationship affects Somalia’s ability to leverage Gulf support, which could have implications for its geopolitical position.

• Saudi Arabia’s Cautious Stance

Saudi Arabia takes a measured approach towards Somalia, not viewing the country’s political and economic situation as critical to its broader regional objectives. Somalia’s position is not a priority for Riyadh.

• Qatar’s Interest in Somalia’s Ports

Qatar, a close ally of Turkey, is also involved in Somalia’s strategic infrastructure, particularly its ports. This engagement places Qatar in the middle of the region’s broader competition for influence, further complicating Somalia’s diplomatic landscape.

• Turkish Investments in Ethiopia

Turkey has made substantial investments in Ethiopia, with over $2 billion in direct investments and more than 200 Turkish companies operating in the country. To safeguard these interests, Turkey aligns with the Ethiopian government, including in its conflict with the Tigray region.

• Turkey-Somalia Agreements on Defense and Oil

Somalia has signed two significant agreements with Turkey, one on defense and the other on oil exploration, both related to maritime interests. This involvement may inadvertently touch on Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to the sea, further intertwining their regional strategies.

• Strained Somalia-Qatar Relations

Somalia’s relationship with Qatar has become more strained since the re-election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The weakening of this alliance limits Somalia’s access to Qatar’s political and financial support.

1. Challenges in Turkey-Somalia Relations

Turkey and Somalia have faced diplomatic challenges, particularly after failed negotiations in Ankara and increasing pressure on Turkish companies managing Mogadishu’s port and airport. This could affect Turkey’s future engagement with Somalia.

1. US and UK Back Gulf Plans Quietly

The United States and the United Kingdom are tacitly supporting Gulf countries’ investments and strategic plans in the Horn of Africa. However, they are reportedly displeased with Somalia’s recent resource-related agreements, which they see as undermining their influence in the region.

1. Djibouti’s Balancing Act

Djibouti, whose port is crucial for Ethiopia’s trade, maintains friendly relations with both Somalia and Ethiopia. However, Djibouti is in a delicate position and may eventually be forced to take sides as the regional tensions escalate.

13. Eritrea’s Clandestine Relations

Eritrea, locked in a conflict with Djibouti and holding strained relations with Ethiopia, reportedly maintains a covert relationship with the Somali president. Eritrea, wary of Ethiopia’s ambitions to develop a naval presence, could complicate Somalia-Ethiopia relations further.

1. Ethiopia’s Leverage through the African Union

As the headquarters of the African Union, Ethiopia enjoys strong diplomatic ties with many African countries, giving it considerable regional clout. This leverage is something Somalia lacks, putting it at a disadvantage in regional diplomacy.

1. China’s Role in Ethiopian and Somali Relations

China, Ethiopia’s largest foreign investor, has been courting Somalia’s neutrality in exchange for not recognizing Taiwan. In return, Somalia is expected to refrain from recognizing Somaliland, creating a diplomatic balancing act between Somalia, Ethiopia, and China.

• The intricate web of alliances, investments, and competing interests creates a complex diplomatic environment for Somalia. The Somali government faces the challenge of navigating these tensions while preserving national interests. Whether it can balance these conflicting relationships—particularly between global powers, Gulf countries, and regional neighbors—will be crucial for maintaining its sovereignty and regional influence.

Ultimately, Somalia’s ability to negotiate with key stakeholders like Ethiopia, Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf States, while managing internal and regional pressures, will determine the country’s future trajectory in the Horn of Africa. Can Somali officials find a path through these competing interests and protect the nation’s long-term stability and sovereignty? That remains an open question.