Asmara, Eritrea – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has arrived in Asmara for a two-day official visit to meet with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The visit comes at a critical juncture as Eritrea voices strong concerns over the Ethiopia-Somalia agreement signed in Ankara on December 11, an accord it views as rushed and lacking transparency.

Eritrea’s Foreign Ministry has criticized the deal, suggesting it could enable Ethiopia to gain strategic military access to Somali waters, a move that Eritrea sees as a direct threat to its national security. Abdulqadir Idris, an advisor to Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently commented that Ethiopia’s ambitions may go beyond economic partnerships and include military control over the region’s waters.

The discussions between Presidents Mohamud and Afwerki are expected to focus on key regional issues, particularly Eritrea’s apprehensions about Ethiopia’s growing influence. The agenda is likely to cover:

• Clarification of the Ethiopia-Somalia Agreement: Eritrea is seeking detailed assurances from Somalia about the nature of its agreement with Ethiopia, particularly whether it involves granting military access to Somali waters.
• Regional Security and Stability: Both leaders aim to discuss strategies to address mounting tensions in the Horn of Africa and prevent potential conflict.
• Eritrean Support for Somali Forces: Eritrea has played a role in training Somali troops in recent years, and the meeting may reaffirm its commitment to this effort, while reiterating its policy of not deploying its own forces to Somalia.

A Fragile Regional Balance

This visit highlights the delicate balancing act Somalia must navigate as it strengthens its partnerships in the Horn of Africa. While Somalia’s growing collaboration with Ethiopia has raised concerns in Eritrea, President Mohamud’s visit to Asmara is seen as a move to ease tensions and foster cooperation.

Eritrea, historically cautious about Ethiopia’s ambitions, views this moment as pivotal for regional stability. Somalia’s decisions regarding its alliances could redefine the power dynamics in the Horn of Africa, making this visit critical for both nations.

As the international community closely watches the outcome of these talks, President Mohamud’s ability to address Eritrea’s concerns while maintaining Somalia’s sovereignty will be key to shaping the region’s future.