MOGADISHU— A scathing new report from the Heritage Institute warns that Somalia’s fragile federal system is at risk of unraveling due to escalating political divisions, entrenched corruption, and faltering efforts to combat terrorism. With just 18 months left until the 2026 elections, experts are urging bold and immediate reforms to restore stability and trust in the nation’s governance.

A System Under Strain

The report paints a grim picture of a country grappling with deep-seated issues. Corruption, described as systemic and pervasive, continues to erode public trust in both the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS). Somalia ranks consistently at the bottom of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, with favoritism, impunity, and misuse of resources undermining governance at every level.

The political crisis has been exacerbated by unilateral actions taken by the FGS, including contentious amendments to the provisional constitution. These moves have alienated federal members like Puntland, which has suspended collaboration with the central government. The fallout threatens to derail Somalia’s federal framework, a cornerstone of its post-conflict recovery.

Security Concerns Mount

On the security front, Somalia’s stalled campaign against al-Shabaab, a key priority of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has left the nation vulnerable. A catastrophic counterattack in Osweyne in 2023 marked a turning point, stalling the military’s momentum and allowing the terrorist group to regroup. Compounding the issue is the ongoing drawdown of the African Union’s peacekeeping forces, leaving Somali troops stretched thin and under-resourced.

The commentary also highlights the damaging political infighting between federal forces and state militias. A recent clash in Raskamboni between FGS troops and Jubbaland’s security forces underscored the fragility of Somalia’s political system and raised fears that such conflicts could embolden al-Shabaab.

International Frustration

The Heritage Institute’s report notes growing impatience among Somalia’s international donors, who fund approximately 70% of the federal budget. Donors are frustrated by the lack of progress on governance reforms and anti-corruption measures, raising concerns that vital funding could be withdrawn if the situation does not improve.

A Path Forward

The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for reform, urging Somali leaders to prioritize unity and transparency. Key recommendations include:

• Convening a national dialogue with political and civil society leaders to rebuild trust and foster cooperation.
• Relaunching a coordinated military campaign against al-Shabaab, with sustainable funding and accountability mechanisms.
• Fast-tracking the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Commission and enhancing transparency in resource allocation.

A Warning and an Opportunity

With time running out before the 2026 elections, the Heritage Institute’s report underscores the urgency of addressing Somalia’s challenges. “Failure to act decisively risks plunging the country further into instability,” the report warns. However, it also highlights a fleeting window for bold action, suggesting that with unity and commitment, Somalia can chart a course toward stability and progress.

For more insights and the full report, visit the Heritage Institute’s official website.