Nairobi(Mogadishu24)-The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued its seasonal forecast for October to December (OND) 2024, highlighting an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across the eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

The forecast, critical for the equatorial regions of GHA, indicates that southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the most severe impacts likely in southern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia.

In contrast, western parts of the region, including southeastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western and northwestern Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern Burundi, and parts of western Rwanda, are likely to see above-normal rainfall. These wetter conditions could support agricultural productivity, pasture generation, and water resources availability in those areas.

The temperature forecast also points to an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, particularly in eastern Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Conversely, cooler-than-average temperatures are expected in localized areas across Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

H.E. Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary of IGAD, stressed the urgency of coordinated action in response to these climate predictions, noting that the region already faces severe challenges such as food insecurity, with 56.5 million people currently in acute need.

“The climate outlook for the October to December 2024 season underscores the urgent need for coordinated preparedness efforts by national governments, development agencies, and humanitarian partners,” Dr. Gebeyehu said.

Dr. Festus K. Ng’eno, Principal Secretary of the State Department for Environment, emphasized the importance of early warning systems, stating, “The effectiveness of these systems depends on our collective action. We need to invest in the development and maintenance of these systems and ensure that warnings reach everyone, including the most vulnerable communities.”

ICPAC’s Officer-in-Charge, Dr. Abdi Fidar, highlighted the role of seasonal forecasts in regional planning, stressing the need for timely action to mitigate the potential impacts of the predicted drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa.

The October to December 2024 forecast, developed using objective methods and inputs from multiple global centers, serves as a critical tool for decision-makers across the region, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address the evolving climate challenges in the GHA.