Mogadishu(Mogadishu24)-In the evolving political landscape of Somalia, the ambition to transition towards direct elections by 2026 marks a significant milestone. However, this goal is fraught with challenges that demand an intricate understanding of the legislative, political, and socio-economic factors at play. The commitments from both the President and the Prime Minister signify a resolute step toward democratic governance, yet the feasibility of this transition remains a topic of intense debate.

A critical first step towards organizing direct elections involves the introduction of new party laws and an election bill. These legislative changes are indispensable but are likely to encounter substantial resistance. Opposition leaders and various federal member states may demand amendments, elongating the legislative process and casting doubt on the practicality of meeting the 2026 deadline. The intricate nature of passing and effectively implementing these laws exacerbates the skepticism surrounding this ambitious timeline.

Two primary scenarios emerge from the current discourse. The first scenario envisions the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) adhering to its plan, fostering an inclusive process that involves all federal member states and mitigating opposition to unilateral elections. Achieving this scenario necessitates a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for elections, which might include extending the current mandate by one or two years to allow for thorough implementation and consensus-building.

Conversely, the second scenario considers the possibility that the FGS may fail to deliver a realistic election plan. This failure could provoke opposition from other stakeholders, potentially reverting the process to indirect elections. Such a reversal could either usher in a new leader or result in the reelection of the current president, thereby continuing the plan under a renewed four-year mandate. This scenario underscores the fragility of the political environment and the critical need for a robust and executable election strategy.

Despite the agreement signed in May 2023 between federal member state leaders and the federal government proposing direct elections, there exists a preference among some leaders for indirect elections. Indirect elections afford these leaders greater influence and control over the electoral process. Additionally, they are perceived as less costly and more straightforward to implement within a constrained timeframe, although this perception warrants careful scrutiny. The political dynamics and vested interests of various leaders play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral landscape.

Reflecting on the past decade, Somalia has made incremental strides in its electoral process. The evolution from 135 clan elders selecting members of parliament in 2012 to 27,500 delegates participating in the electoral process in 2021 illustrates progress. However, this gradual approach has not significantly enhanced the integrity or inclusiveness of elections. Corruption persists, and the proportion of the population engaged in the electoral process remains minimal. This historical context underscores the need for a transformative approach to electoral reforms.

A notable deficiency in the current electoral process is the lack of robust citizen participation. Government outreach efforts have been minimal, leading to a disconnect between the electoral framework and public involvement. For elections to genuinely reflect the will of the people, active engagement from civil society organizations and citizens is imperative. However, the socio-economic challenges in Somalia, where a significant portion of the population grapples with basic needs, diminish the prioritization of electoral participation. This socio-economic reality presents a formidable challenge to fostering a culture of accountability and citizen-driven electoral processes.

Economic factors further complicate the viability of elections. Viable electoral processes typically thrive in societies with a substantial middle class and a degree of economic stability. With many Somalis living on less than $2 a day, the immediate focus remains on survival rather than political engagement. This economic hardship underscores the critical need for addressing the socio-economic conditions to enable meaningful participation in the electoral process.

The success of Somalia’s electoral process ultimately hinges on political consensus. Building agreement among all stakeholders, including federal and regional leaders, opposition parties, and civil society, is crucial for a credible and inclusive electoral process. As encapsulated by the Somali proverb “Wixii la isla oggolyahay ceeb ma keenaan,”meaning agreements won’t bring problems, the importance of consensus cannot be overstated. This consensus-building will be the cornerstone of Somalia’s journey toward direct elections.

Mohammed Hirmoge, a journalist, Former Head of Strategic Communications at Villa Somalia, succinctly encapsulates the challenge: “True democracy is not merely about holding elections; it’s about building a system where every voice matters.” This sentiment is echoed by Mahad Wasuge, the Executive Director of Somali Public Agenda, who emphasizes, “Without inclusive participation and transparent processes, elections risk becoming a facade.”Additionally, Ali Halane, a Journalist, columnist and Former Correspondent at BBC Arabia notes, “The road to 2026 is paved with both opportunities and obstacles; success lies in navigating them wisely.”

In conclusion, while the aspiration for direct elections by 2026 is commendable, achieving this goal demands overcoming significant legislative, political, and socio-economic hurdles. Ensuring broad-based participation, fostering political consensus, and addressing the immediate needs of the population are essential steps in this complex journey toward democratic governance in Somalia. The path forward requires unwavering commitment, strategic planning, and a collective effort to realize the promise of a more democratic and inclusive Somalia.