Mogadishu, Somalia – January 2025: A damning new report from the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies has cast a spotlight on the challenges of managing Somalia’s security following the looting of two truckloads of weapons in the town of Abudwak, Galmudug state. The July 2024 incident, which involved Marehan clan militias overpowering National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) personnel, has sparked fears of escalating clan conflicts and the potential arming of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab.

The report, titled “Tackling the Proliferation of Illicit Weapons in Somalia,” provides a comprehensive analysis of the incident and its wider implications. It describes the looting as “the most significant case of weapons diversion documented since the lifting of the arms embargo in December 2023.”

A Security Crisis in the Making

The seized cache, worth millions of dollars, included heavy weaponry rarely seen on the black market, such as DShKs, PKMs, sniper rifles, and AK-47s. “This unprecedented quantity of smuggled weapons underscores the scale of the problem,” the report notes. The looted arms are now feared to have heightened the risk of clan power struggles, particularly in Galmudug, a state already beset by long-standing disputes over land and resources.

“The looting of weapons has fueled an arms race among clans, further exacerbating protracted conflicts in Galmudug,” the report warns. It also highlights concerns that political actors could exploit the weapons to influence the region’s high-stakes 2025 elections.

Implications for Regional Stability

The report delves into the broader geopolitical implications, particularly the role of Ethiopia. The weapons were smuggled through the Ethiopian border, a well-known hub for illicit trade. The Somali government accused Ethiopia of complicity, a claim that Addis Ababa denied. The report states, “The incident adds to the deteriorating relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly in the wake of Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland.”

These tensions have not only strained diplomatic ties but also raised fears of further destabilization in the Horn of Africa. “Ethiopia’s hardline policies risk fueling internal conflicts within Somalia while undermining the fragile progress made in regional security,” the report observes.

The report raises alarms about the potential for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab to acquire the looted weapons through Somalia’s thriving black market. “Despite the Marehan clan’s ideological opposition to Al-Shabaab, the scale of the looted cache makes it likely that some weapons could end up in extremist hands,” the report cautions. Such an outcome would strengthen Al-Shabaab’s operational capabilities, undermining recent gains by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) against the insurgency.

The Debate Over the Arms Embargo

The incident has reignited discussions over the United Nations’ decision to lift Somalia’s 30-year arms embargo in 2023. While the embargo’s removal was hailed as a milestone, the report highlights its unintended consequences. “The lack of robust management frameworks has allowed weapons to fall into the wrong hands, jeopardizing national security,” it states.

Both Somaliland and Puntland, regions that opposed the lifting of the embargo, have called for its reinstatement. However, the report suggests that the UN Security Council is unlikely to reverse its decision, emphasizing the need for Somalia to address these challenges internally.

Recommendations for Action

To prevent further destabilization, the report proposes several urgent measures:

• Integrating Clan Militias: Bringing militias like those involved in the Abudwak incident into formal security forces to ensure control over heavy weaponry.
• Strengthening Legal Frameworks: Enacting a comprehensive firearms bill to regulate arms possession and trade.
• Rebuilding Trust: Engaging local elders in negotiations to recover looted weapons and prevent their misuse.
• Enhancing Border Security: Closing smuggling corridors through improved coordination between federal and state governments.

“The Abudwak incident is a wake-up call for Somalia and its international partners,” the report concludes. “The proliferation of illicit weapons must be addressed through coordinated efforts that prioritize both security and reconciliation.”

The Heritage Institute’s findings serve as a stark reminder of the complexities of Somalia’s security landscape. The looting in Abudwak is not just a local crisis but a national and regional one, with implications that extend beyond clan dynamics to the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.