By Mohammed Hirmoge

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud seems to have drawn a lesson from his predecessor’s miscalculation: securing control of parliament alone is not enough to retain power. From the outset, he pursued a strategy aimed at containing the Federal Member States. Farmajo had replaced them.

In this mutually dependent arrangement, Qoorqoor, Laftagareen, and Gudlawe appear intoxicated by the prospect of indefinite term extensions. For those desperate to cling to power, it’s an irresistible offer.

Now, President Hassan is playing a tricky hand, he is pushing the one-person, one-vote agenda. It’s a move that could pave the way for a term extension under the pretext of electoral reform. But no, that may not work out well.  The launch of his party is a clear indication that he aims to  walk to the “Tent”  with the full backing of Federal Member States firmly aligned with his party.

Known for his qabyo (incomplete) approach to politics and policy, this strategy too may falter. Laftagaren and company could eventually sober up, election seasons have a way of emboldening the Federal Member States. The President’s grand alliance is built on shaky ground; like a domino, all it takes is one defection to bring the whole structure crashing down. 

As Somalia edges closer to yet another critical juncture, the political gamesmanship unfolding in Villa Somalia risks undermining the fragile trust in federalism and democratic progress. If President Hassan continues to prioritize political survival over consensus-building and genuine reform, he may find that the very structure he built to sustain his power will be the first to collapse beneath him. It happened before, it’s bound to happen again.

One last thing: arresting journalists and muzzling the media is often the quickest way to amplify the very stories you’re trying to suppress. It’s outdated, counterproductive, and it never ends well!