Tomorrow, in Mogadishu, the National Consultative Forum is expected to officially begin. The forum will deeply discuss the platform announced by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, focusing on the country’s political and security situation, especially the ongoing war against groups operating in Somalia.

The meeting will include leaders from the federal member states, the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister, and the Governor of Banadir Region.

Participants and Current Tensions

It is expected that the leaders of the member states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West, and SSC-Khaatumo will attend. This will be SSC-Khaatumo’s first official participation in the National Consultative Forum since its recognition last month.

The Puntland government, which has been officially invited, has not yet confirmed whether it will attend, although it participated in the forum in 2023. Jubbaland has not been invited to the meeting.

The National Consultative Forum will also focus on discussing the platform announced by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at the end of March, addressing the country’s political and war-related challenges.

President Hassan: Two-Time Election Winner, His Goal is One-Person, One-Vote

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the first leader to win the presidential election twice, has strongly expressed his commitment to moving Somalia from a proxy election system to a direct voting system where citizens can vote directly.

Since being re-elected in 2022, he has taken several steps toward this goal, including:

• Amending four important articles of the Provisional Constitution.
• Establishing the National Electoral Commission.
• Appointing the Independent National Election Commission.
• Starting the voter registration process for local councils, including in Mogadishu.

However, these steps have faced significant criticism from the opposition and some regional leaders, who accuse President Hassan of pushing through a one-sided plan that could jeopardize Somalia’s unity.

Reflecting on the Third Republic’s Elections

Since the formation of the Third Republic, Somalia has hosted six indirect elections where the public did not participate directly in voting. This system has been based on clan agreements that have dominated the political landscape for many years.

Now, President Hassan’s new effort aims to break this tradition, but he faces strong political opposition. The opposition sees his plan as unilateral and excludes the traditional political consultations that have been the basis of the country’s political processes.

What Can Be Expected from the Forum?

The National Consultative Forum, which starts tomorrow in Mogadishu, is expected to set the direction for the country’s elections. There are hopes that the forum will resolve the conflicts surrounding the approach to the 2026 elections and agree on how to conduct one-person, one-vote elections. A key question will be whether a decision will be made to continue the long-established clan-based system or transition to a more democratic voting process.

The pressing question is, “Will it be possible to hold one-person, one-vote elections that satisfy both the President and the opposition, with only local elections in regions like Puntland applying the clan-based system, while other elections follow the direct voting model?”