Mogadishu(Mogadishu24)-As Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s government crosses the two-year mark, it is crucial to assess the administration’s progress, the obstacles it has encountered, and the future trajectory of its policies and initiatives. Over these two years, Somalia has witnessed significant political maneuvering, economic reforms, and a range of public reactions that underscore both the strides made and the challenges that persist.

Somalia at a Crossroads: Navigating Federalism and Governance

One of the hallmark achievements of Prime Minister Barre’s administration has been the advancement of constitutional reform. The approval of four key chapters by the Somali Parliament is a testament to the government’s commitment to creating a more robust legal framework that supports a stable and democratic Somalia. This progress is essential in a country that has long struggled with governance issues, and it sets the stage for more comprehensive reforms in the future.

However, this achievement has not been without its challenges. The political landscape remains deeply fragmented, particularly with the ongoing exclusion of Puntland from the National Consultative Council (NCC) meetings. The NCC is designed to be a platform where federal member states can collaborate on national issues, and Puntland’s absence from these discussions has raised serious concerns about the inclusivity and effectiveness of the political process. The rift between the central government and Puntland reflects broader tensions within the federal system, which could undermine the very foundation of Somalia’s federalism if not addressed.

Despite these challenges, the Barre administration has demonstrated a commitment to moving the country towards more transparent and democratic governance. The progress made in drafting the election law, the political parties’ law, and the establishment of the electoral commission is steps in the right direction. These initiatives are crucial for realizing the long-promised goal of one person, one vote—a milestone that would mark a significant shift in Somalia’s political culture. However, the effectiveness of these reforms will be tested in the upcoming elections, both at the federal and state levels.

The administration’s efforts to foster political unity have been met with mixed results. While there has been progress in some areas, the persistence of political divisions, particularly with key federal member states, continues to pose a significant challenge. The success of the government’s broader political agenda will depend on its ability to bring all stakeholders to the table and address the concerns of regions like Puntland. Achieving this will require a more inclusive approach to governance and a willingness to engage in dialogue with all political actors.

Progress and Perils: Somalia’s Security Under Barre

Security remains one of the most pressing issues for the Barre administration. The government has made efforts to stabilize the country, particularly in regions that have been hotspots of conflict. These efforts have included military operations against extremist groups, as well as initiatives aimed at strengthening local governance structures in conflict-prone areas. However, the goal of achieving nationwide stability remains elusive, with ongoing conflicts and security challenges in several regions.

The relationship between the central government and the federal member states is crucial for ensuring a coordinated approach to security. However, political differences, particularly with Puntland, have complicated these efforts. The lack of a unified security strategy has hindered the government’s ability to implement effective security measures across the country. This disunity poses a significant risk to the broader goal of stabilizing Somalia, as it prevents the formation of a cohesive front against common security threats.

Despite these challenges, there have been some positive developments in the security sector. The administration’s efforts to reform the security forces and improve their capacity have shown some results, although much work remains to be done. The success of these reforms will ultimately depend on the government’s ability to address the underlying political issues that continue to drive conflict in Somalia. This will require a comprehensive approach that includes political reconciliation, economic development, and the strengthening of local governance structures.

Debt Relief and the Path Forward: Somalia’s Economic Journey

Economically, the government’s most notable achievement has been reaching the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative completion point in December 2023. This milestone represents a significant step forward for Somalia, as it has led to substantial debt relief and reduced the country’s financial burdens. The government’s ability to meet the stringent conditions set by international financial institutions to achieve this status is a commendable achievement that reflects a level of fiscal discipline previously questioned.

The debt relief provides Somalia with an opportunity to rebuild its economy on a more stable footing. It opens the door to increased foreign investment, access to international credit markets, and the ability to finance essential infrastructure projects. However, the benefits of this debt relief will only be realized if the government can effectively manage its newfound fiscal space and implement policies that promote sustainable economic growth.

Despite this progress, the road to economic recovery remains challenging. The government has introduced new taxes, such as the 5% sales tax, in an effort to boost domestic revenue. However, these measures have been met with public resistance, particularly among the youth, who face high unemployment rates and limited economic opportunities. The dissatisfaction was vividly expressed through a social media movement where young Somalis voiced their frustrations, claiming they are “broke” and struggling to make ends meet. This public sentiment highlights a significant disconnect between the government’s narrative of economic progress and the reality faced by many ordinary Somalis.

The administration’s response to these economic concerns has been somewhat dismissive, with President Barre emphasizing ongoing construction projects as evidence of economic activity. While it is true that there are signs of economic development, particularly in urban areas, these benefits have not been evenly distributed across the population. The youth, who make up a significant portion of Somalia’s population, continue to face high levels of unemployment and underemployment, which threatens social stability and undermines the potential for long-term economic growth.

Moving forward, the Barre administration faces the critical task of translating the benefits of debt relief into tangible economic improvements for all Somalis. This will require a focus on job creation, particularly for the youth, and investments in sectors that can drive long-term development. The government must also address the structural issues that have hindered economic growth, such as weak infrastructure, limited access to credit, and a challenging business environment. Achieving sustainable economic growth will require a comprehensive approach that includes not only fiscal and monetary reforms but also measures to improve governance, reduce corruption, and create a more inclusive economy.

Barre’s Somalia: The Road Ahead

As Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s government enters the second half of its term, it faces the dual challenge of maintaining the momentum of its early successes while addressing the gaps that have become increasingly apparent. The administration’s achievements in constitutional reform and debt relief are significant, but they represent only the first steps towards achieving the broader goals of political stability, security, and economic prosperity.

To build on these achievements, the government must adopt a more inclusive approach to governance that brings all stakeholders, including federal member states like Puntland, into the political process. This inclusivity is crucial for maintaining political stability and fostering a sense of national unity, which are essential for the success of the government’s broader agenda.

In the security sector, the government must continue its efforts to stabilize the country, but it must also address the underlying political issues that drive conflict. This will require a comprehensive approach that includes political reconciliation, economic development, and the strengthening of local governance structures.

Economically, the government must focus on translating the benefits of debt relief into tangible improvements for the population. This will require a focus on job creation, particularly for the youth, and investments in infrastructure and other sectors that can drive long-term development. The government must also address the structural issues that have hindered economic growth and create an environment that is conducive to investment and economic activity.

In conclusion, while the Barre administration has made important strides in its first two years, the road ahead will be crucial in determining whether these achievements can be transformed into lasting improvements for Somalia. The government must now focus on addressing the challenges that remain, ensuring that its policies and initiatives are inclusive, effective, and responsive to the needs of the Somali people. The next two years will be decisive in shaping the future of Somalia and securing a stable and prosperous future for the nation.